Phases
of Civil Stability
Colonel Dan, SASS Life #24025
Being a self-appointed student of history and having
lived through six decades of the passing scene, I think I’ve identified a few
common phases in a nation’s evolutionary cycle of civil stability. Granted, I’m no degreed sociologist but given
this is an editorial page, I don’t need a degree. All I need is a personal opinion based on my
observations of life in order to shoot off at the keyboard. In fact, Yogi Berra taught me years ago, “You
can observe a lot just by watching” and I’ve been indebted to him for this
pearl of wisdom ever since I started writing political commentary.
Pick a nation at some point along its historical
timeline, study its events and you can apply this phased cycle of stability rather
well. This isn’t unique to any one
country and the
Those nations whose political leaders are attuned
to the mood of the people and react accordingly to their concerns and abide by
the supreme law of the land thrive and survive to serve another day. Those who ignore either and become arrogantly
convinced of their own omnipotent invulnerability fall…and sometimes their fall
precedes that of the country itself. As
you read this, think about various countries throughout history that have fallen
into chaos and see if these stages apply.
Then ask yourself where
1.
Ambivalence; the public usually ignores the government on a daily basis;
all is generally well; life goes on harmoniously. The public doesn’t keep up with or pay any
real attention to political business since it isn’t adversely impacting them.
2. Petulance: isolated issues (tax hikes, new regulations,
inflation etc) arise and invoke some temporary periods of grumbling but life is
by and large OK here too.
3.
Anger: The on-going issues that
caused petulance such as economic distress, security threats, shortages of
goods and services now start disrupting life and causing not only increased
concern but slowly evolves into anger.
4.
Resentment: No effective action
is taken by government to resolve the issue(s) and soothe the growing public distress. The anger starts to turn into real resentment
toward those in charge and therefore they’re held responsible for this deteriorating
state of affairs.
5. Outrage: As unresolved issues continue to grow, private
resentment turns into public outrage resulting in protests and marches. A feeling of isolation and disenfranchisement
is becoming more apparent. Politicians
aren’t listening and the people see an agenda driven government that is out of
touch with their daily lives. In this phase, politicians are quickly losing the
respect of their constituents.
6. Fury: As
outrage leads to fury over the worsening situation, politicians are confronted openly
and verbally assaulted publicly. People
see clear signs of arrogance in their political leaders; overt loss of respect is
shown without restraint toward those in elected office; protests become more
frequent and filled with public anger; the language is getting stronger almost
daily. Opportunists see an opening to fan
the flames and start watering the seeds of this growing discontent.
7. Disobedience: When there is no perceivable response to the
expressed fury and governmental arrogance continues, the public is now being
pushed to or over the edge. Opportunists become more open in stirring the
people to action in the name of justice.
Normal public restraint is breaking down and the ground is becoming more
fertile to displays of civil disobedience with the crowds of those willing to participate
growing larger. The number of incidents increase
and people are uniting in a “cause” under the influence of emerging leaders.
8. Riots: When
politicians either arrogantly ignore public displays of disobedience or
confront them with strong armed authority, they are bringing gasoline to a
growing fire. The feeling of despair
pervades and the term “tyranny” becomes more common in describing the government. Incidents of increasingly destructive disorder
are becoming more widespread—mainly in urban areas across the country.
9.
Revolution: If government authority
cannot squelch the riots by force or appeasement, opportunists see the door
opening ever wider and begin fanning the flames of open revolution. The level of rage grows and a moral cause is
linked to the coming action. A general
breakdown of orderly society ensues.
Some people turn to their perceived group of “revolutionary saviors”
while others run back to the seated government for protection.
10. Anarchy: A temporary power vacuum leads to short-term chaos
and anarchy until a fresh group of recognized leaders eventually emerge and establish
a new government.
11.
Rebirth: Whoever emerges will determine
the path of that country’s future—a new freer beginning as in 18th
century
As of this writing, I think we’re somewhere between
a mature Phase 5 and the early stages of Phase 6. Prayerfully “We the People” can and will soon
compel a positive change in direction returning our country to Phase 1. Only time and commitment will tell the tale. Just the view from my saddle…
Contact Colonel Dan: coloneldan@bellsouth.net
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